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TheMotte pre-Ukraine

Lot's of IR stuff in this thread:

What I am wondering is whether our eagerness to expand NATO is having more drawbacks than benefits. Russia's weakness (which they are well aware of) is that because much of their land is currently tundra, the majority of their civilization is in the west, uncomfortably close to NATO. The Kremlin doesn't want NATO forces within "rapid striking distance" of Moscow, which I can totally sympathize with, because I wouldn't want Russian or CCP forces situated in Mexico. They've made it absolutely clear that this is a red line for them. I don't think they particularly want to invade the Ukraine, they just don't want the Ukraine to join NATO because they perceive that as a threat, and they're probably going to do whatever they have to in order to stop that threat

US Capitol attacks

Honorable Mentions:

Various duels and fights conducted in the Capitol or by Senators and Congressmen. Special plaudits go to: the duel in which Representative William J. Graves of Kentucky killed Representative Jonathan Cilley of Maine; the incident on February 6th 1858 in which a debate over the Kansas Territory grew into a fistfight that included over 30 Representatives; "The Battle of the Reed Rules," in which newly-elected Speaker Thomas Brackett Reed attempted to count Democrats in the chamber who were present but remaining silent to defy a quorum, after which Democrats attempted to flee before Reed had the doors ordered locked; the infamous Brooks-Sumner affair, when Preston Brooks of South Carolina beat Charles Sumner with a cane on the Senate Floor over a heated debate on slavery (which only ended when several Senators pulled pistols to restore order); and, less-famously, the caning in 1866, when Lovell Rousseau of Kentucky (a Union general during the war) caned Josiah Grinnell of Iowa, after which Rousseau was censured, resigned, and then re-elected handily in the same seat.

Honorable Mention: The Weather Underground

On March 1st, 1971, radical militant group "Weather Underground" successfully planted and detonated a bomb in one of the men's bathrooms. No one was injured, and no one was ever arrested or changed. Weather Underground leaders Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn were later, famously, at the center of a controversy over how close they were to then-candidate Barack Obama.

Later, in 1983, the "May 19th Communist Organization," a feminist spin-off of the Weather Underground, would plant bombs twice in Capitol restrooms, failing to detonate one on November 6th but succeeding to detonate one on November 7th. Nobody was hurt, 7 people were charged, 2 were sentenced, and one would eventually have her sentence commuted by President Clinton.

...

At first, it looked as if neighboring Virginia would remain in the Union. When it unexpectedly voted for secession, there was a serious danger that the divided state of Maryland would do the same, which would totally surround the capital with enemy states. President Abraham Lincoln’s act in jailing Maryland's pro-slavery leaders without trial saved the capital from that fate.

Faced with an open rebellion that had turned hostile, Lincoln began organizing a military force to protect Washington. The Confederates desired to occupy Washington and massed to take it. On April 10 forces began to trickle into the city. On April 19, the Baltimore riot threatened the arrival of further reinforcements. Andrew Carnegie led the building of a railroad that circumvented Baltimore, allowing soldiers to arrive on April 25, thereby saving the capital.

Wikipedia rather understates the danger. After the incident at Fort Sumter, when the seceded state of South Carolina bombarded the federal garrison there, Virginia voted to secede from the Union, and DC found itself at risk of being totally isolated and captured without any defenses. Lincoln passed a very sleepless week wondering if the capitol was about to be occupied any moment, and was only relieved when the first troops of his 75,000-man militia arrived from Massachusetts.

The 1954 United States Capitol shooting was an attack on March 1, 1954, by four Puerto Rican nationalists who sought to promote the cause of Puerto Rico's independence from US rule. They fired 30 rounds from semi-automatic pistols onto the legislative floor from the Ladies' Gallery (a balcony for visitors) of the House of Representatives chamber within the United States Capitol.

The nationalists, identified as Lolita Lebrón, Rafael Cancel Miranda, Andres Figueroa Cordero, and Irvin Flores Rodríguez, unfurled a Puerto Rican flag and began shooting at Representatives in the 83rd Congress, who were debating an immigration bill. Five Representatives were wounded, one seriously, but all recovered. The assailants were arrested, tried and convicted in federal court, and given long sentences, amounting to life imprisonment. In 1978 and 1979, their sentences were commuted by President Jimmy Carter.[2] All four returned to Puerto Rico.

Five congressmen were injured in the attack but none too seriously

Some commentary:

I think part of this is the dichotomy of politicians as symbols and as people. Politicians have power, they are privileged. But they (in theory) have that power because they have been invested with decision making powers by the people.

Like 9/11 wasn't targeting as many killings as possible, they targeted symbols of America, symbols of capitalism and power. This is because arguably barring nukes or similar, no matter how many people you kill in the US, it won't really affect anything. You could kill a hundred thousand people and not much actually happens. The nation will go on.

Bring down the World Trade Centre? Destroy the Pentagon? The White House or Capitol? That has an outsized impact on the nation, because they have an outsized meaning to the nation. Politicians are invested with having a meaning beyond their own life.

So politicians are at once representations of privilege and symbolic concentrations of the common man. So when you attack a politician are you punching up at their power? Or down at the thousands of standard Americans they are the symbolic representation of? Sideways if you are one of said standard Americans?

Other commentary:

B) the intent or the "what if" versus what happened. B) is kind of a complicated one, because I'm expecting responses of "THEY RANSACKED THE CAPITOL!," which is... kind of true, but also they could have done so much worse. I find it hard to get past that: they had every opportunity to do real damage, and yet for the most part, they acted like drunken frat boys. Like all of Trump's presidency, for all the bluster and barking, there was (virtually) no bite. I can even quote Chuck Schumer on that: "all this mob did was delay our vote a few hours." Like Heath Ledger's Joker, they were the dog that caught the car and didn't know what to do with it. I just- that tension bothers me, that so many attitudes seem based in what they could have done instead.

Do we judge people for what they could have done, or for what they did? Judging a mob for failed intent is... dangerous ground to stand on, in my opinion. "Hang Pence" is a clear threat, but a serious one? A whole lot of people make clear yet (supposedly) unserious threats; shall we round them up too?

More radical takes:

Neither the government nor it's public servants are sacred.

I've been hearing a lot of public officials describing capitol hill as "sacred" and the democratic process as "sanctified". Even Joe Biden (a "catholic" no less) described it as such during his speech yesterday.

In no uncertain terms do I reject this framing. Government is transient by definition. Rights are endowed to the individual, not by the state, so there is no real significance in the means by which we govern other than "we like it." If we fail to like it any longer, then we the people have every right to restructure our government in whatever way we please. There is nothing holy or sacred about it.

Private citizens, however, are "sanctified" if you will by "the will of god," endowed "with inalienable rights" by which they "shall not be infringed." Several of the founders questioned whether it was wise to even have a bill of rights, so as to make it appear that we don't have certain, unlisted rights (I think it was the right call, tbh).

So no, I have a pretty particular opinion on the January 6th riots: they were dumb, potentially malicious (but mostly dumb) people who were frustrated by the means of governance. They exercised this frustration by going to the seat of power and expressing it to their leaders with force. This is infinitely more palatable to me since I believe sanctity lies with the private citizen, not the public servant. With this modality, I see the capitol riot as rather benign compared to the 2020 summer riots, pillaging, looting, burning, and destroying my own community because they are acting on private citizens, not public servants.

30 people died during 2020 due to the riots. The same cannot be said of the capitol riots. If the whole government of the United States were overturned that day, I would be more concerned with how they planned on drafting a new constitution than I would be with the public servants caught in a dangerous situation. Public leaders of the country are a lower priority to me than the retention of my rights as a private citizen, and this should be, frankly, how everyone sees it.

It sounds pretty radical now that I type it out, but I stand by it.

More commentary:

If the described plan existed, and was only foiled by Pence not playing along, he would have found out, kept receipts and gone on Oprah as a hero, rather than retiring to a life of obscurity. He may not be a shining intellectual star, but you don't get to be vice president by being blind enough to get played like that.

Also, I'll believe that some kind of plan existed in Trumps delusional inner circle, but a plan that required the direct complicity of the Secret Service and the Capitol Police? With no leaks a year later? Hatched by a president who couldn't conspire to hold on to even his own chief of staff? Helped by Four Seasons-guy?

The biggest argument against most conspiracy theories is that they require a level of competence on part of the perpetrators that very clearly does not exist (and, if it did exist, the conspiracy often wouldn't be necessary -- I mean, 9/11, all that to get to go to war in Iraq, instead of just fabricating and planting convincing evidence of a WMD-program?).

/u/mseebach

america - europe - national identity and divorces

There is no “America”, and anyone who tells you there is hasn’t travelled enough. “American” includes everyone from Eskimos who speak in their native tongue and eat whales and have never seen a two story building to NYC Wall Street billionaires. It is everyone from people living in some of the most rural areas on earth to people living in some of the most densely populated areas on earth. We do not have a common religion and increasingly do not even have a common language (or even expectations of if we should have those things!). Our internal legal structure is de facto vague enough that it led to a massive civil war…that didn’t answer the fundamental problems that led to it. Where does a state’s right end and the federal government’s rights begin? As of 2022 we do not know.

At this point, there’s like 5 Americas at minimum. They very seldom have anything to do with one another, even when acting in good faith. Should food be expensive? In a place like South Dakota, where “food” is made, that question reads like, “should farmers deserve good pay for their hard work”, in places like LA/NYC/DC, that question reads like, “why is everyone trying to bleed me dry financially”. And they are both correct.

Or guns: I’ve been to remote villages in Alaska where you are required to have a gun in your car during Polar Bear Migration Season because hungry polar bears are dangerous and help is far away. I’ve also been to Manhattan, NY where the idea of a very powerful rifle that can shoot 500 meters is (correctly!) seen as absurdly dangerous to the point of bad-faith. And yet firearms are handled nationally. Neither NYC nor Nome, AK is wrong in their understanding, and the system is set up to enrage us.

You have lots of people who favor a “Czech/Slovak” divorce, if in sotto vocce. America is no longer a meaningful unit and the sooner we quit lying to ourselves about it the happier we will be.

Another comment:

Doesn't every country have that same "big city asshole" versus "country bumpkin" dynamic? I'm sure that an educated, white-collar worker in Stockholm, Tokyo, or Shanghai and a rural farmer in the same country hold very different values and priorities, yet they aren't waging a culture war with the same ferociousness we are in America. (Or are they? I'm curious now.)

A reply:

A lot of it is because they can’t. Old school, Melian Dialogue style. “The weak do what they must, the strong do what they will”.

My father is from Belgium, and I have lots of ties to there. I’m not Belgian, but I “get” them. Belgium is really 2 countries uncomfortably glued together. But they realize that even as one country, they’re small and vulnerable. As two, they just wouldn’t matter. At least by grudgingly accepting one another, they can have some safety in the world.

America, on the other hand, is in a similar position. Texas and California do not have alignment of interests. The difference, though, is Texas by itself is the world’s 9th largest economy and California the world’s 5th largest. A Belgian looks across the culture divide differently than a Californian. After all, what would happen if California left? It would have a higher GDP than the United Kingdom, and that’s not exactly a terrible fate.

And a thought about Europe:

The Northern European societies are in a strange suspended anodyne state because they can simply import their culture from America, have no external threats thanks to America and can simply use their existing advantages to stay on top of American controlled world economy, meanwhile giving over their political decision making to the EU. These countries don't have much of an identity crisis because they have long decided a slow comfortable death is the way to go. Their people will only object if the death symptoms become suddenly a bit too difficult to ignore (ie refugee crisis). If you have no ambitions left in life you won't make many enemies

thich nhat hanh died

To live, we must die every instant. We must perish again and again in the storms that make life possible.

not sure if this is exceptional writing, but it got a lot of quotes (so like mine), and temporally relevant.

The feeling began shortly before eleven o’clock at night on October first. I was browsing on the eleventh floor of Butler Library. I knew the library was about to close, and I saw a book that concerned the area of my research. I slid it off the shelf and held it in my two hands. It was large and heavy. I read that it had been published in 1892, and it was donated to the Columbia Library the same year. On the back cover was a slip of paper that recorded the names of borrowers and the dates they took it out of the library. The first time it had been borrowed was in 1915, the second time was in 1932. I would be the third. Can you imagine? I was only the third borrower, on October 1, 1962. For seventy years, only two other people had stood in the same spot I now stood, pulled the book from the shelf, and decided to check it out. I was overcome with the wish to meet those two people. I don’t know why, but I wanted to hug them. But they had vanished, and I, too, will soon disappear. Two points on the same straight line will never meet. I was able to encounter two people in space, but not in time.

The Internet Changed My Life (2022)

A search engine that favors text-heavy sites and punishes modern web design

Why russia's economy is immune to western sanction - Money & Macro (2022)

/r/WaxSealers . a subreddit for people who like to seal their letters the old fashioned way

\<scirDSL> I hated going to weddings. All the grandmas would poke me saying "You're next". They stopped that when I started doing it to them at funerals

"Everyday a fool and a smart person wakes up. When they meet, business are made" - Brazillian saying

"What's the silliest thing you staunchly believe, support, or will do to support what you know is an otherwise unreasonable stance?

For instance, I refuse to read The Infinite and the Divine because I think Necrons are boring and I don't want to find them interesting. I've heard its really good and but I just can't risk it."

"GPS". or how Viet spent 15 minutes manipulating a rope

"Research is just learning something no one knows yet"

"It is extremely hard to be an investor and a doomer". or climate change analyst meet trying to build wealth

The shortest tallest building by state is in vermont at 38m. It has 11 floors.

How a democrat turns Republican. - /u/VelveteenAmbush

How a Trump voter turned on Trump cause of Jan 6. - /u/VelveteenAmbush

"In this comment I want to make the case for why I think there was a plan to keep Trump in power even though he had lost the 2020 election and the factors that prevented such a plan from being executed." - /u/Hailanathema

Frodo

I told this to close friends before, but it's worth writing again.

When I first read Lord of the Rings, I thought Frodo was boring. He wasn't heroic like Aragorn, nor was he wise like Gandalf. Frodo was just walking and "suffers" from the ring. I would skip Frodo's parts when I re-read.

Having now been through what I have experienced, I would still skip Frodo's parts on re-read. Not because I thought it's boring, but because the invisible pain hits very close to home.

Rob of Cinelabs

In tech, we use many words for old hands at coding that can weave miracles out of scraps such as wizards, greybeards, or Old [insert name here]. Today I met a wizard, and as such I would like to write about Robert Houllahan of Cinelabs.

I was at a "swimming party" for film processing, "swimming" because manual processing so much film takes boatloads of water, and found my way to the couch with some salad for dinner with my gf. My girlfriend then tugged on my sleeve and pointed out a quiet, unassuming man, definitely 50+, maybe even 60, beer belly showing with a camera in his side bag and one of those camo pants with lots of pockets. Oh and a man bun. Go see his linkedin for a profile lol. "That's Rob!" she said, "That's Rob!". "Who?" I asked. "Rob of Cinelabs! All Vanderbilt's student films get scanned there and I remember writing a long email to Mr. Houllahan for the first time asking.....". (Imagine a Kpop fan seeing a kpop star from afar). Somehow, Rob came to sit next to us as we had dinner, just ambled himself onto the armchair next to our couch.

My girlfriend, obviously, had to introduce herself. And then Rob told us that he is the man that helped setup Steve Cossman's scanner that I wrote about in niche tech in film. At that point I am piqued. One simply knows that Rob is gonna be absolutely delightfully interesting. And so 25 minutes of scanner tech talk begins.

From resolution dimensions, lens specifications, stabilization software, databus sizes, storage problems, SSD vs HDD and accompanying tools, operating systems, to supply chain origins, UI/UX improvements, historical (brief) walkthrough of scanner tech history and recent developments. Rob lists every detail on any topic, in a chain unending. There might be an intro to his answers? maybe a topic sentence? but never a conclusion. Sometimes, I knew I had to cut in because time is short (party conversations has a certain energy gauge you have to ascertain constantly), but I was enthralled. Here was a master, and even though I only understand about 33% of what's going on, I had to ask them.

At one point, Rob stood up and goes to get more pizza. I think that meant my time was up. I had a feeling Rob is a solitary man, and goes where he pleases (even if he really doesn't show it). We didn't interact much afterwards but I did get a handshake before heading home. His hands were warm.

Last note: Researching online about Cinelabs, I get a distinct feeling modern filmmakers are sometimes frustrated about the lack of communication when put in an order. I think they don't realize the work that goes in processing millions of feet of film a year in such a tightly run ship. Also, since it's so very very unlikely that Rob would see this blogpost, I like to hypothesize, based on my short interaction with the glacier that is Rob Houllahan, that the man could be on the spectrum. He is a wizard though, that's for sure. Not to mention, he is a site sponsor of cinematography.com, and is ALWAYS ONLINE! Seriously, check his profile! He even has a tiktok!.

{% include centerImage.html url="/assets/rob_of_cinelabs.jpg" desc="Rob and me" title="A meeting at Gowanus Darkroom" %}

GF on UNSC

My girlfriend had an off-day today, which meant she spent her afternoon watching YouTube videos on the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. Through a segment on Seth Meyers, my gf found her way to the live recording of the United Nations Security Council giving their votes on a (largely symbolic) resolution. Here's how she summarizes it:

It's the tone. you have to watch the tone! Everyone is like "you suck!", US was like "that's right!", UK was like "that's right!", but Brazil was like "we find the situation deeply troubling...."

It was cute. That's all. Not a good day for many people today, so we should appreciate the treasures along the way.