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why don't MC change the world

As for the newly appointed Duke of Star Lake, due to his gentle attitude towards governance (he did not care about it), his lack of taxation (he had no ambition), and his freedom (he had no sense of existence), he soon gained a good reputation in the fiefs and villages.

However, this made some people rather dissatisfied.

"That's it?"

During a martial arts class one day, Mallos was summoned to the capital for something at the last minute. D.D, who was in charge of training, relaxed and complained to the prince in the "lumberyard". "I thought that with your courage, wisdom, and knowledge, you would do something… different in Star Lake Castle?"

Thales raised his wooden sword and exchanged blows with Wya as he replied,

"Very good, Wya. I like this move—something different, like?"

D.D. flicked his armor, feeling bored.

"I don't know. Reform, improve, innovate, and improve? Just like some knights' poems said, a knight with broad horizons obtained his own fiefdom, enacted a new policy to sweep away all of his lingering problems, accumulate land troops and food, and finally become a developed and advanced country. He swept through the world and created history?"

Thales smiled.

"Reform, improve, innovate, improve."

With a flip of his hand, he swung his sword.

"Very good, Your Highness." The attendant was indescribably surprised. "Compared to Dragon Clouds City, you have improved a lot. You have even mastered the Power of Eradication."

"Practice makes perfect." Thales pressed down on his aching left wrist and revealed a fake smile.

He tossed the wooden sword to Wya and prepared to rest while answering Doyle's question.

"It's not that I don't want to bring about change, D.D., it's just that…"

Thales was silent for a while.

"Do you know how many types of farmers and workers are in this field? How are they categorized, how are their origins, where are their hometowns, how many people are in their homes, how many farm tools are there in their livestock, how many land and farmhouses are there? How are their daily lives, how do they work, how many jobs are there, how many tasks are there in a year, how are the man and woman's jobs different, how are they compatible with each other, how many crops and products are produced in an orderly fashion, how many things are self-sufficient, which products are exchanged at the market, who should be responsible for reporting to whom, what ratio and rules are used to hand over money or physical items, what kind of friends have the most contact with each other, what kind of entertainment is used outside of labor, what kind of meals are used as staple food, what preferences are used for rest, what topics to talk about, what holidays are they celebrated, how are they dealt with, how are their family's beliefs, how are they going to treat illnesses, and social ceremonies?"

These words attracted the attention of many people. Glover, who came up with clothes and a towel, and Paul, who was practicing his swordsmanship by the side paused at the same time.

After hearing this long speech, D.D stared at him in a daze and shook his head.

Thales smiled.

"Very good, because I don't know either."

The prince turned around and sighed.

"But these people, they were born here, lived here, and died here. They understood this land better than anyone else for hundreds or thousands of years. What makes me think that a so-called Duke of Star Lake, who has just descended from the sky and is untainted by mud, can have wisdom and knowledge that is deeper and more professional than theirs, and can adapt to the local ecology to guide them on how to live a better life?"

"I am not Brother Morhasa, D.D., nor am I a prophet who descended from the sky. That occupation only exists in the Sunset Scriptures, and I am not that arrogant. I am arrogant to the point where I can see through history and point out the direction of the 'future' to the murky world."

Thales snapped out of his daze and patted Doyle's shoulder.

"Let's go home. I remember that Kusta caught two wild boars in the trap in Hunting Forest today. The logistics wing also hired a new cook. Dinner shouldn't be too monotonous."

D.D. nodded dumbly.

"But as you said, it has always been like this, and it may not be right."

Wya's words made Thales stop in his tracks.

"Just like what you did in Dragon Clouds City," Wya said in a deep voice, "Your shocking feat broke the thousand-year-old shackles of Northland and brought new life to us. Only then did you turn the situation around and witness history."

The attendant looked at Thales' back. "Perhaps the people of this land have developed habits and wisdom due to the accumulation of time and history, but if they remain the same, they will inevitably follow the old ways. Perhaps, sometimes, it is necessary for wise and decisive rulers like you to bring about change and innovation, just like the countless reforms in the kingdom's history?"

Thales had his back to him and did not speak for a long time.

Until he exhaled.

"Yes, thank you for the reminder, Wya."

He turned around and faced everyone in the training field.

"But if I say what I learned six or seven years after the Night of Dragon's Blood," Thales smiled, "perhaps, it's humility."

Wya was stunned.

Thales took the towel from Glover, wiped his face, and took off his protective gear.

"The head of the Single-Winged Crows, the Lord of Wing Castle, Derek Kroma once told me a small story."

"Do you know when the messenger crow appeared?"

Everyone on the training ground looked at each other.

"Ancient Empire."

The person who answered was Glover. He said seriously,

"On a large scale, Emperor Komora used messenger crows to transmit military information. They played an important role in the war, allowing him to command the army with unbelievable efficiency and control the entire situation. He far surpassed his opponents of the same generation and won the initiative."

"Even after the conquest was completed, the messenger crows were of great use," Paul continued. "No matter how far the territory was from each other, and no matter how many messages were sent, the emperor who presided over the royal territories was able to firmly rule all the major provinces and make a sect. This increased the effectiveness of governance, strengthened the cohesion of the Empire, and weakened the possibility of division. It was an important factor that allowed the Empire to maintain its rule after the epic conquest."

Listening to their answers, Thales nodded.

"Correct."

"But that was not the first time the Ravens appeared. It was not their first time on the stage of history."

Thales searched his memory.

"About seven hundred years ago during the Calendar of Kings, which was two hundred years before the birth of the emperor, a… a wise man discovered that certain special birds would react differently to specific magnets. This could be the reason why they could travel thousands of miles without getting lost. The Raven Technique originated from that."

"Soon, one of the kings of Western Waves Cliff decided to put a batch of meticulously cultivated and trained messenger crows into use. They would replace the communication channels between the city states, and replace all messengers, mail, and flint. 'I have captured civilization and the future,' he said with great courage and hope.

Thales paused for a moment.

"But the situation is not that simple."

"The Ravens are very new, fast, and convenient, but their skills are far from mature. The cost of training and cultivation is high, and the cost of raising them for a year is enough to feed an ordinary family. The period and effect of their training is also not satisfactory."

Thales' tone became heavier.

"However, the king still firmly believed that the messenger crow was the future. For this, he did not hesitate to pay any price, ignored all the contradicting admonitions, and insisted on using the messenger crow. As a result, the tax on the kingdom increased."

"Soon, the messenger crows became a new trend. For a period of time, the entire kingdom fought to gather bird seeds, build birdhouses, grow bird food, and dig magnetic mines. There was a story that recorded that a poor family lived a difficult life. They kept their supplies and fed the messenger crows, but they starved their children to death."

Hearing this, Wya sighed softly.

Ralf tightened his grip.

"Secondly, the appearance of the messenger crows affected the lives of many people—suzerains, nobles, priests, messengers, postmen, guards, and even heralds and sentinels. These were direct and indirect influences. There were also scholars who held pens, copywriters, poets who were used to writing long stories, but butlers who collected rents. Some lost their jobs, some changed their careers, some protested, and some insisted on using past methods of communication…"

Paul looked thoughtful.

"That's not all. Because of the existence of the messenger crows, many information was released an hour ago, and the suzerains learned about it an hour later. So, the time the farmers paid their rent, the deadline for taxation, the pace of the craftsmen's work, the fluctuations in the market price, and everything else were brought up again. Everyone's lives were turned upside down. They were at a loss and tried their best to catch up to the messenger crows' pace—or rather, the king's pace could not be reached. They were tortured and suffered indescribably."

Glover frowned.

Thales took off his last piece of protective equipment and faced the setting sun of the Western Hills with ease.

"But the king is so superstitious about progress and civilization. He believes that the setback before his eyes is just a momentary pain. A moment of sacrifice must be compensated. In the end, Raven Technology will accelerate his output, make communication efficient, and eventually make the country strong and rich, thus solving all problems."

Thales gradually fell into a daze.

"But he is right," Glover could not help but say. "In the Emperor's conquest and rule, the Raven is indispensable."

Thales only smiled.

D.D. looked at this one, then at the other. She was filled with puzzlement.

"In the end, due to many factors, the Raven King was arrested and killed, the Raven House was destroyed, the Raven Tamer was hanged, and the king who 'seized the future' was driven off the stage by the endless uprisings.

Thales raised his head.

"Before he died, he cried and questioned the God of Light in the heavens, 'Why? What I promised this world was clearly a technology that could change everything. It was a merit that was destined to be passed down for generations. It was the best civilization and future!'"

Thales ended the story in a low voice.

"The Raven's first application in the world has failed."

"It will be two hundred years later when the Great Emperor starts his army, the Empire conquers, and the Raven is accepted by more people."

As soon as he finished speaking, the soft chirping of birds returning to their nests could be heard from the distant forest.

Paul closed his eyes.

"What a pity."

The people on the training field were silent for a while, until Wya asked tentatively,

"Are you saying that the king is too arrogant and not humble enough?"

Thales nodded and shook his head.

"According to historical records, the King of the Western Waves, who is known as the 'Crow King', 'has great ambitions and is obsessed with heights. He dotes on birds, abuses the people, and loses sight of what is before him'."

"Indeed."

Paul sighed.

"If this king takes things step by step and applies them on a small scale, instead of rushing for quick results, if he cares about the people, knows about the situation of the people, understands the political situation, and slowly moves forward, if he waits for his skills to mature before…"

"If."

Thales interrupted Paul. He stared at the horizon in a daze.

"If?"

"Yes, we can always be so confident in finding reasons for history and simply finding explanations for the past."

Paul was puzzled.

Thales continued to speak, "But from the Raven Lord to the Great Emperor, during the two hundred years that the Ravens were abandoned, was it the world's attitude and reaction to the Ravens, was it the inevitable 'step-by-step' of history, or was it the consequence of humans being 'eager for quick results'?"

The Star Lake Guards exchanged glances with each other, expressing their confusion over the topic and the duke's question.

But Thales was still lost in thought. He muttered to himself,

"The tragedy of the Crow Lord is lamentable, but is it inevitable? Is it unavoidable? Is it not something we can solve by standing in the future, no matter how much nonsense we say, 'if only it would be better'?"

"Are those two hundred years necessary sacrifices, or unnecessary waste and blindness?"

"As for us, how should we maintain our humility and not lose our enthusiasm?"

These words caused many people to react differently. Some lowered their heads in deep thought, while others were confused.

"Your Highness?"

Wya leaned forward worriedly.

"I don't know, Wya." Thales shook his head. "I really don't know."

"These people on our land, suzerains, farmers, merchants, craftsmen, they are in the same era, history, and world as us."

"What right do I have to think that I have the right to be arrogant? What right do I have to think that I can bring them something? What right do I have to think that in their history and land, there is no wisdom and desire passed down through the ages, no seeds of change and improvement, no sprouts of future and hope buried in them, only waiting for the day they break out of the ground?"

a bad mood

‘I remember,’ Brod writes, ‘ a conversation with Kafka which began with present-day Europe and the decline of the human race. “We are nihilistic thoughts, suicidal thoughts that come into God’s head,” Kafka said. This reminded me at first of the Gnostic view of life: God as the evil demiurge, the world as his Fall. “Oh no,” said Kafka, “our world is only a bad mood of God, a bad day of his.” “Then there is hope outside this manifestation of the world that we know.” He smiled. “Oh, plenty of hope, an infinite amount of hope – but not for us.”

The quote above seems to be the accurate quote. But I like the rendition I found on Reddit:

"Kafka said to his friend Max "We are only suicidal thoughts in the mind of God. Our entire world is just a bad mood he's having. We live in God's bad day." Max, not sure if his friend was joking, replied "Well then, there must be hope, outside this manifestation of the world we know." Kafka smiled and agreed. "Yes, an abundance of hope, an infinity of hope...for God. But not for us.""

social graph

Eugene Wei's "And You Will Know Us by the Company We Keep"

In my three pieces on TikTok, I wrote about how that app's architecture is fundamentally different from that of most Western social media. TikTok doesn't need you to follow any accounts to construct a relevant feed for you. Instead, it does two things.

First, it tries to understand what interests you by observing how you react to everything it shows you. It tries to learn your taste, and it does a damn good job of it. TikTok is an interest graph built as an interest graph.

Secondly, TikTok runs every candidate video through a two-stage screening process. First, it runs videos through one of the most terrifying, vicious quality filters known to man: a panel of a few hundred largely Gen Z users. Okay, yes, that's not quite right. Anyone can be on this test audience for a video. It just happens, however, that TikTok's user base skews younger, so most of the people on that panel will be Gen Z. Also, it's a known fact that a pack of Gen Z users muttering "OK Boomer" is the most terrifying pack hunter in the animal kingdom after hyenas and murder hornets. If those test viewers don't show any interest, the video is yeeted into the dustbin of TikTok, never to be seen again except if someone seeks it out directly on someone's profile.

Secondly, it then uses its algorithm to decide whether that video would interest each user based on their taste profile. Even if you don't follow the creator of a video, if TikTok's algorithm thinks you'll enjoy it, you'll see it in your For You Page.

Recently, Instagram announced it would start showing its users posts from accounts they don't follow. In many ways, this is as close to a concession as we'll see from Instagram to the superiority of TikTok's architecture for pure entertainment. ...

It's not that apps can't be more fun when social, or that people don't share some overlapping interests with people they know. We all care both our interests and the people in our lives. When they overlap, even better. It's just that after more than a decade of living with our current social apps, we have ample case studies illustrating the downsides of assuming they are perfectly correlated. ...

A classic example, though I don't know if this still persists, is how Pinterest skewed heavily towards female users at launch, losing lots of potential male users in the process. This was a function of building their feed off of each user's social graph. Men would see a flood of pins from the females in their network as women were some of the strongest earlier adopters of pinning. This created a reflexive loop in which Pinterest was perceived as a female-centric social app, which chased off some male users, thus becoming self-fulfilling stereotype. An alternate content selection heuristic for the feed could have corrected for this skew.

But again, this is a problem unique to Western social media design. In conflating the social graph and the interest graph, we've introduced a content matching problem that needn't exist. I don't get upset that my friends don't follow me on TikTok or Reddit or what I think of as purer interest and/or entertainment networks. It's very clear in those products that each person should follow their own interests.

Quote is out of order.

Rebuttal on HBD

It's better if you read the thread.

The hard statement, on the other hand, is that where you have two populations that can be reliably distinguished by their gene pools, any phenotypic gap is likely to be essentially genetic in origin. - /u/JuliusBranson

and the rebuttal:

This is a fatal error, and anything which flows from it can be immediately discarded as unsupported.

Let's consider chimps and humans, two species separated by ~5 million years of evolution, and which everyone would agree are genetically distinct in many, many ways. They are immediately distinguishable on both genetic and phenotypic examination, and on would be hard pressed to mistake one for the other.

One of the crucial distinctions is bicondylar angle, the angle of the femoral condyles at the knee relative to the femoral shaft. In chimps, this is near-zero because, as predominantly quadrupedal animals, the femur is held parallel to the tibia and both are vertical. As a result, the feet are widely spaced which gives the stability when quadrupedal, but makes them unstable when they walk bipedally, causing them to sway from side to side. In humans, the femur angles inwards while the tibia remains vertical, bringing the feet together under the body and reducing the sideways sway during locomotion. Correspondingly, the offset angle between the femur midshaft and knee articulation is ~0 degrees in chimps but about 12 degrees (give or take) in humans.

I would like to pause to note that I'm not just pulling up some obscure bit of anatomy here. The biggest reason Lucy the Australopithecus (and the partial knee remains discovered nearby a few years earlier) shook the entire physical anthropology world was because the fossils show a human-like bicondylar angle, and therefore evidence of upright walking. Lucy's knees are up their with Ostrom's re-descriptions of Deinonychus as an active, endothermic predator and Walcott's discovery of the Burgess Shale fauna as the greatest paleontological discoveries of all time.

Surely such a massively important anatomical difference, that's been in place for millions of years and underlies upright walking, one of the defining events of our evolution, is genetic, right?

Nope.

In fact, it's mostly the product of "phenotypic plasticity", the ability of organisms to modify their anatomy, biochemistry, and, yes, nervous system to suit their environments. Habitual bipedalism in chimps and other primates leads to non-heritable, phenotypically plastic modifications of the femur towards human and australopith values (1, 2) (whether natural or due to human training). Conversely, humans who have never walked due to paralysis since infancy show no bicondylar angle at all, and very "chimp-like" femurs (1, 2).

This represents merely a very visually striking and emotionally resonant example, as it deals with a major morphological difference in the most studied (or over-studied) evolutionary transition ever, but is FAR from exceptional. Dramatic plasticity occurs in mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish, insects, and crustaceans. This can include mechanical and biochemical responses to the environment as well as social and behavioral changes. It interacts with genetic evolution in bizarre and sometimes counter-intuitive ways. In some cases, information does seem to be transmitted generationally, but also seems to "evaporate" after a few generations.

The problem I see in most HDB arguments is not that IQ isn't highly heritable or that humans don't have geographical genetic variation, it's wanting to jump straight from one to another and skip all the steps in between. In fairness, some of these steps are impossible or insanely difficult without transgressing major ethical barriers. We already know IQ is highly plastic at least in the downwards direction due to factors such as malnutrition and heavy metal contamination, yet these factors are never, IMHO, given adequate consideration.

You might cry "gene denialism", but I'd be on equally strong footing calling "plasticity denialism". - /u/GeriatricZergling

utilitarianism is incompatible with certain multiverse theories

This is close to McNamara's Confinement Problem, where he shows that under reasonable assumptions is morally acceptable to kill your mother. If there is an unlimited amount of utility, for example, if we can create a trust that grows over time and decide at a certain point to liquidate the trust and spend it on good works (this example is from Landesman) then there is unbounded utility. Therefore, for every world where we don't kill our mother, there is a world with strictly high utility where we do - we just wait long enough for the growth of the trust to create enough utility to make up for our mother's death.

What this shows is probably that infinite amounts of utility are non-intuitive.

McMichael says much the same thing:

"If there is a good which may exist in amounts of any size, then very horrible things turn out to be unconditionally permissible. Select any world w, however good. There is a world w' which is better than w but in which Jesse gratuitously inflicts extreme pain on many kindly scholars. To be sure, there would have to be counterbalancing goods in w', but I see nothing to prevent their appearance."

Lewis's response to this was that utilitarianism was dumb. Technically, he said "not a commonsensical view."

irony as a mode of political action

Edit: included rebuttal

IRONY AS A MODE OF POLITICAL ACTION

We are generally used to the assumption that the motivation driving political action is sincere. All past political movements fit that criteria. Progressives were, and still are sincere about curing racism from the world. Nazis were sincere about doing Nazi things. And so were Protestants, Catholics. Augustus Caesar and his army were sincere in wanting to rule an empire.

There is a growing current now, present particularly in forms of youth culture like 4chan and now TikTok, that everything cool and memetically attractive should be deeply layered in irony. The most striking example to me was a series of TikToks about Holocaust themed pornography, that were lambasted by mainstream media - but the culture that produced them continues to go on unabated.

This sort of phenomenon wouldn't be news to Baudrillard or Nietschze - the lack of sincerity of belief would just be an obvious symptom of modern life. Normally, these insincere people are cast as politically helpless, last men and slaves to a few rules who control their lives effortlessly. But suppose that the way to move them into taking action was through the opposite of sincere ideology, instead only through the insincere.

The most clear, and perhaps only example of this - was the debacle involving the Gamestop stock. A bunch of normal people were willing to throw their money at something for reasons that were mostly insincere: memes and shitposting at the man. Mocking the man with graffiti is nothing new, but usually there is a framework held in opposition to what the man believes. The 60s radicals had their communism to hold against the pseudocapitalism of 60s America. Antifa today still does, and still is sincere, even if their ideas are pathetic and wrongheaded. But what does r/wsb believe in?

The radical right does have tenuous ties to Nazi or Randian ideology, but not conclusively. It's hard to be a Nazi outside of Germany, or to rescue the capitalists from themselves. So all that's left is to believe in nothing. Some 'neo-Leninists' want to resuscitate the old ideals of Marx to give them an ideology, but I haven't been that impressed with what they've accomplished so far.

A friend mentioned to me that they believed a second Holocaust was possible from today's youth, not from any sincere hatred of Jews, but from how they would do it ironically, laughing about how those crotchety old boomers couldn't stand joking about it. I don't think that result is particularly likely, but it seems more plausible to me than any claim that a sincere genocide will happen, from the left or the right.

and the reply:

I'm going to go out on a limb here and potentially draw the wrath of the mods and admins by stating that I do not view irony as much of a defense.

My default attitude is that Nazi's should be shot and thier homes burned to the ground as Patton, Harris, and Le May intended. Ironic Nazis should be shot and thier homes burned to the ground ironically.

  • /u/HlynkaCG

Stalin believed he was a social scientist

Gradually their loyalty to the ideas became more and more instrumental, more and more a matter of what the ideas would let them grip in their two hands…

Stalin had been a gangster who really believed he was a social scientist. Khruschev was a gangster who hoped he was a social scientist. But the moment was drawing irresistibly closer when the idealism would rot away by one more degree, and the Soviet Union would be governed by gangsters who were only pretending to be social scientists.

societal confidence

I'm sure having every mistake catalogued doesn't help. But I see a lot of this coming from the culture. In part by removing the literature of the past. We spend a lot of time worried that our reading lists are too European. We worry that our history courses celebrate our achievements too much or without being sure to tell students that the people doing this were bad in some way. We can't talk about industrialization -- a process that ultimately raised humanity to wealth, health and endless luxury on a scale unimaginable beforehand -- without being sure to mention the environmental devastation, or the wealth inequality, or something else.

China has the same Internet we have, and do a lot less self flag elation over their past misdeeds. They don't remove Chinese literature in favor of French or Indian literature. They don't talk about whatever Confucius did wrong. And it seems to give them the self confidence to do amazing things. The Chinese absolutely believe in progress, and that they can and should go for it. They could build a fully functional hospital in a week. They're building highways in Africa.

F-35 was a success

The reason the F-35 was 'worth' the trouble is that it got over a dozen first-world militaries using the same combat system, rather than every nation trying to create less effective national champions. Aside from raising the standard, the distributed industrial base and procurement means that everyone involved- which is to say- American allies- can cross-train, cross-supply, and even loan/borrow/otherwise support eachother's air operations with minimal trouble, greatly increasing the self-reinforcing nature of the American alliance network. While- at the same time- ensuring that all participants are tied to the American logistic chain, meaning that anyone who wants to keep a world-leading aircraft operational won't go rogue against American interests.

The F35 is a political and logistical success as much as a technological success, and those are far harder to arrange at scale.